It’s been 44 years since Virginia elected a Democrat to the white house. Yet almost every poll has it squarely in the Democrat column. So either the polling methods are wrong, or there has been a vast voter shift in the last few years.
I predict Virginia will be the bellweather for this election. If Virginia turns blue, it’s a sure sign of a change in voter sentiment. In that case, any races which Kerry lost in 2004 (but were considered “close”) will almost certainly go Democrat. On the other hand, if Virginia stays red, it’s an equally sure sign the polling methodology overall is completely flawed. In that case, every previously red state is up for grabs for McCain.