rootflags.org

It’s been 44 years since Virginia elected a Democrat to the white house. Yet almost every poll has it squarely in the Democrat column. So either the polling methods are wrong, or there has been a vast voter shift in the last few years.

I predict Virginia will be the bellweather for this election. If Virginia turns blue, it’s a sure sign of a change in voter sentiment. In that case, any races which Kerry lost in 2004 (but were considered “close”) will almost certainly go Democrat. On the other hand, if Virginia stays red, it’s an equally sure sign the polling methodology overall is completely flawed. In that case, every previously red state is up for grabs for McCain.

For those who keep asking me “how’s the market been the last few weeks”, take a look at the CME Volatility Index for a rough idea (see the 5 year chart).

Another amusing bit I ran across was Central Banking Explained.

Last June, I sold our gas-powered mower and bought a manual reel mower. Our yard is small, and without a shed or garage I didn’t have any place to keep the gas mower, so it seemed like a great fit. I ended up buying the 16″ Sunlawn LMM40. The big sell to me was blades which rarely need sharpening. After one season they’re still sharp, so I guess that’s good.

Last week when I mowed for (hopefully) the last time this year, I noticed the blades didn’t want to engage properly. The mower has a 2 year warranty, so I tried to contact Sunlawn through their website. Both e-mail addresses bounced and there is no phone number. Fortunately I had purchased it through Reel Mowers USA, and they have agreed to send me the parts.

I definitely appreciate Reel Mowers USA honoring Sunlawn’s warranty, but based on the complete lack of contact methods, I would caution anyone out there from buying any of Sunlawn’s products.

So, my first week of MBA classes at Kellogg is done, and I can now say for certainty that the next two and a half years are going to kick my ass. Work, Strategy and Accounting classes, a house to keep up, and most importantly family time (login required) are pretty much destined to suck my remaining free time.  So expect even less posting for a while.

Granted they have the best part-time MBA program in the country, but it was a definite shock to have a mandatory all-day leadership seminar on the first Saturday after classes started. I guess I’m about 10 years out of practice.

Subprime just got the ball rolling. The resulting credit crunch, and recent commercial paper (which is where money markets invest) interruption hasn’t helped. If Warren Buffet believes that Paulson’s TARP will prevent a meltdown and subsequent bank run, I say go for it. After all, anyone who has turned a 15 fold profit over the last 18 years must know more than other folks. If only I had a $135,000 to buy a share.

Granted, scrapping the entire banking system and replacing it would be a better solution, but I’ll take what I can get for now. Plus, if the Treasury values the toxic CDOs appropriately, taxpayers may eventually actually profit from the deal, similar to how the RTC did after the S&L crisis in the 80’s.

Yes, I like Wikipedia links.

While I was on paternity leave, my office mates decided to, er, pack up my office.